Tuesday, November 18, 2014

Fidelity LOW PRICE stock FLPSX
The “headline-news” on CNBC this morning (Nov, 18) was that Carl Icahn had said, “the stock market will probably correct in the next 2 to 5 years.” That’s one hell of a prediction eh? It only shows that CNBC is much more talk than edification and that at the end of the day, no one knows!

As the Stock Market seems to make new highs every day are there any opportunities to jump in? My Thoughts.

The Market is on a tear, on that we can agree. As I write this the Dow stands at $17,700 and the small investor fears buying in at a market top but know that as the market claws its way upward they are missing out on the “opportunity cost of Money” for sitting in cash doesn’t even come close to matching the inflation rate.

The market often favors certain sectors at certain times. At this point in time it seems that the Health-care and Tech sectors are the flavor of the month. I believe that buying into them is too risky although I admire my gains since I bought into them quite a while ago.

Looking at the “out-of-favor” sectors I like the lower price companies sector and I have bought into a Fidelity Fund (Low Price Stock, FLPSX) here is my reasoning.

---The overall market is up but at $49.94 a share FLPSX is squarely in the middle of its 52 week high-low range of $46 to $53. Remember it’s temporarily out of favor as is the Russell 2000 index as a whole

---It has the best fund manager in the industry in my opinion, Mr. Joel Tillinghast who started this fund way back in 1989 and year-in, year-out has steered it upward. His charter is stocks (worldwide) that sell at $35 a share or less and over 25 years he has proven that he is a great stock-picker and the man lives through his fund. It’s hard to find competence and continuity in the fund industry.

---When you average performance for the 25 years since its 1989 inception FLPSX has returned a 14.43% yearly, average return; that is 14.43% each year average even with the 2008 debacle in the results.

---His recent performance of 1 year @$11.46 in an out of favor sector is well above his peers.

---Company's like Microsoft in Tech and Pfizer in Health care are part of its portfolio, not small but bought under the $35 threshold.

---As with any fund or ETF you’re spreading your risk by buying into a group of equities. A single stock buy is a single bet and if that single bet falls you're at 100% risk. For the little guy a market basket of equities is preferable.

---Morningstar rates FLPSX at 4-stars and the fund returns a dividend of .97%.

I think this is a very good horse to ride into 2015 and I’ve purchased it on my own account and intend to add to my position on any weakness. My advice is to dip your toe into the water with the minimum position of $2500 on any day that the market isn’t up then add to it on weakness. I believe you will be rewarded in the coming year.

No comments:

Post a Comment